Heidi Bickner
Department of Mathematics and Economics
Faculty Mentors: Dr. Lothar Dohse, Dept. of Mathematics
The focus of this project is a model that simulates a cougar population
reintroduced into Western North Carolina. This area is the original Eastern cougar habitat. Its last
known population was 6 cougars in the Great Smoky Mountain National Park circa 1975. Recent (past 10-20
years) improvements in habitat conditions have raised the probability of a reintroduction
of this species surviving. This model is developed as a tool to determine if
conditions have improved enough to allow a starter population of cougars to
survive.
A three dimensional stochastic model will be implemented. It includes factors that affect the dynamics of a cougar population, such as cougar birth rates and survival rates, as well as, food source and space limitations, disease, hunting, and other human encounters. Since the cougar's primary food source is deer, a second dimension, the deer population will also be included. Elk have recently been introduced to GSMNP, so the model includes elk, another potential food source, as a third dimension. The results of this model will be presented and analyzed, and suggestions for further improvement will be given.
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