Chris Hovanic
Department of Atmospheric Sciences
Faculty Mentor: Douglas K. Miller, Department of Atmospheric Sciences
The issue of orographically-driven snowfall, also referred to as upslope snowfall, or a northwest flow snow event has been a great point of interest and also concern during my tenure at UNCA. The topography of western North Carolina causes certain areas of the mountains to be quite susceptible to highly localized snowfalls during the winter season during a prevailing northwest flow. These snowfalls can sometimes be very heavy, and present a tremendous problem to the forecaster due to the sometimes sporadic coverage of intense snowfall and often chaotic distribution of snowfall totals.
This study aims to vastly improve the forecast process during a northwest flow snow event, giving the forecaster much more confidence in what to expect in these situations. During my time in Asheville, I have seen countless events of this nature which were very poorly forecasted until the last minute. Often times, snowfall totals were several standard deviations above or below what was expected, with incorrect emphasis on a certain geographic location for the heaviest snowfall. The goal is not intended to be overly critical of the operational forecaster, but instead to demonstrate the incredible difficulty of forecasting these types of situations, and to generate the analysis necessary to better understand them.
